Nine retired generals from Taiwan, Japan and the US have been invited to participate in a tabletop exercise hosted by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation tomorrow and Wednesday that simulates a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2030, the foundation said yesterday.
The five retired Taiwanese generals would include retired admiral Lee Hsi-min (李喜明), joined by retired US Navy admiral Michael Mullen and former chief of staff of the Japan Self-Defense Forces general Shigeru Iwasaki, it said.
The simulation aims to offer strategic insights into regional security and peace in the Taiwan Strait, it added.
Photo: Military News Agency, Reuters and AFP
Foundation chair Huang Huang-hsiung (黃煌雄) and Lee, who serves as executive director of the Center for Peace and Security, believe that Taiwan must adopt a rigorous approach as cross-strait tensions and the possibility of a military conflict increase, the foundation said.
Through military simulations, they aim to assess the security of the western Pacific, explore potential courses of military action China might take and examine Taiwan’s response strategies, it said.
The simulations would be held tomorrow and Wednesday at the Center for Public and Business Administration Education at National Chengchi University in Taipei.
The simulations would examine the feasibility of Taiwan’s military strategy in response to a potential Chinese armed attack in 2030, assuming all currently planned military preparations are in place, the foundation said.
The exercise aims to identify critical defense issues that Taiwan needs to bolster, providing valuable insights for the government, it said.
In addition to Lee, the Taiwanese participating include former deputy ministers of national defense Chang Guan-chung (張冠群) and Hsu Yen-pu (徐衍璞), former army commander Hu Cheng-fu (胡鎮埔) and former air force general Liao Jung-hsin (廖榮鑫).
Former commander of US Pacific forces Dennis Blair and former Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force chief of staff admiral Tomohisa Takei are also taking part.
The simulations would be conducted as tabletop exercises with five groups: a control group, and separate groups representing Taiwan, China, the US and Japan, the foundation said.
Under the control group’s leadership, various scenarios involving Chinese harassment or invasion would be played out to evaluate the Taiwan group’s response, and how the US and Japan groups could assist, it said.
The simulations were designed by the Council on Strategic and Wargaming Strategies, and would be overseen by the control group, led by Lee and council director-general Huang Chieh-cheng (黃介正), it said.
The exercises would have four stages, beginning with Chinese “gray zone” harassment, before progressing to assaults on outlying islands and finally a full-scale invasion, it said.
Following the exercises, there would be a review and international news conference, it added.
There would also be an advisory group consisting of former premiers, defense ministers, chiefs of staff and National Security Council officials, the foundation said.
There are also plans to invite senior members of domestic media to observe, as well as academics and experts from institutions focused on strategic studies to participate in the event, it said.
This is the first operational-level military simulation on a potential cross-strait conflict organized by a civilian organization in Taiwan and the highest-level simulation to date involving participants with military backgrounds, it said.
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